Bitcoin tests bear-market trendline 300 days after $126K top

Bitcoin is trading at $64,416.83 as of 08:15 UTC, testing the bear-market trendline roughly 300 days after the token topped at $126,173.18 on Oct. 6, 2025.

The push comes as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits in Extreme Fear at mid-teens, with spot Bitcoin ETFs still bleeding outflows after November's record $2.33 billion monthly withdrawal, according to fund flow data.

Technicals remain stacked against the bulls. The 50-day average sits below the 200-day, keeping the death cross intact, and traders now treat $70,000 as the next line in the sand — a break below it could trigger forced selling. Short-term holders sitting on paper losses have been the first to exit.

A successful breakout would shift momentum and could draw fresh capital into the broader crypto market, while a rejection risks reinforcing the downtrend and pulling altcoins lower. Bitcoin's 2026 forecast range of $65,254 to $66,928.33 leaves little room for error at current levels.

The bear market began in October 2025, when President Donald Trump's 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports jolted global markets and triggered the largest single-day crypto liquidation on record — over $19 billion wiped out across roughly 1.6 million traders. Bitcoin fell about 18 percent from its peak to near $104,000 within days.

November brought more pressure. Record monthly ETF outflows above $2.33 billion signaled big investors stepping back, while worries about US debt and interest rates pushed the token to a six-month low near $95,000. The Fed's 25-basis-point cut on Sept. 17 had briefly fueled optimism, but cautious guidance cooled expectations for further easing.

The macro backdrop has since darkened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continued withdrawing funds in late January, and the death cross — the 50-day average falling below the 200-day — remains alive. February opened choppy, with the token testing the $70,000 area on Feb. 4 before stabilizing in the low-$70,000s.

For the bulls, the current trendline test is the clearest signal yet that a bottom may be forming. Large long-term holders bought near the lower levels through the correction, helping establish a floor. Analysts at Bitwise and VanEck expect continued ETF inflows, with funds holding over 1.5 million BTC by 2026, and Bitwise's Matt Hougan reiterated a $200,000 target for the year.

A rejection, however, would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a retest of the $64,000 zone, with the 30-day forecast model pointing to a potential low of $64,427.54. The 2026 average forecast of $66,091.16 and 2027 projection of $70,107.73 suggest the market sees a slow grind higher rather than a sharp reversal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.