Bitcoin shutdown odds sink to 17% as December funding cliff looms

Kalshi's US shutdown odds fell to about 17% in early August from roughly 64% a month earlier, after the Senate passed a stopgap bill 90-6.

Arthur Hayes has argued that potential Federal Reserve intervention to support the Japanese yen could expand dollar liquidity and ultimately benefit Bitcoin, making the policy response to fiscal stress potentially more important than the political event itself.

The Senate approved a continuing resolution 90-6 on August 8 that would fund federal agencies through December 11 at largely current levels while temporarily blocking the administration from finalizing a proposed Office of Management and Budget grants rule. The House passed its own stopgap measure 220-205 on July 21, running only through December 4. Because the chambers approved different bills, the Senate legislation still needs House approval before it can reach President Trump.

A December funding standoff would arrive after the midterm elections and during year-end positioning. Bitcoin remained below $65,000 on August 12, trading at $64,048.61, after briefly reaching about $65,200 earlier in the week. July CPI is due August 12, leaving the Federal Reserve's September decision sensitive to another inflation surprise.

A Rescheduled Fight, Not a Settled One

The disputes behind the funding deadline were not settled by the July House vote. The House measure simply extended current funding largely at existing levels through December 4, while the Senate's version would run through December 11 and contains provisions absent from the House bill. The Senate bill also restricts the administration's ability to redirect certain funds and temporarily blocks a White House rule requiring political review of federal grants.

The October 1 shutdown market measures whether a shutdown occurs around that specific deadline, not whether another funding confrontation emerges in December. With both chambers now backing temporary funding beyond the midterms, the probability of an October shutdown should not be treated as a proxy for the broader probability of another fiscal confrontation later in 2026.

Bitcoin's Other Drivers

The Strait of Hormuz relief trade has unraveled after President Trump demanded decades of compensation from Iran, pushing oil prices higher. Bitcoin has struggled to establish a sustained move above $65,000 as renewed geopolitical uncertainty weighed on risk appetite. Ethereum traded at $1,904.99, up 1.1 percent over 24 hours, while XRP rose 1.2 percent to $1.02 and Solana gained 0.6 percent to $76.70.

That leaves Bitcoin exposed to several simultaneous drivers: inflation, Federal Reserve expectations, oil prices, Iran-related developments and the evolving US funding negotiations. Any attempt to attribute its next move solely to shutdown odds would oversimplify the macro picture.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.