Bitcoin reclaims $65,000 as ETF inflows point to market bottom

Bitcoin climbed to $65,000 on Tuesday, its highest level in over a week, as US equities rebounded and Strait of Hormuz tensions eased after President Trump said the waterway remained open and operating.

VanEck's research team, including Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush, said its "Bitcoin Capitulation Check" framework shows eight of 12 indicators currently in capitulation territory, with all 12 metrics touching those thresholds at some point in the past three months. The pattern suggests Bitcoin is "nearing or currently in an accumulation phase," the firm said.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, the strongest single-day performance since May 5, according to SoSoValue data. Bitcoin traded up 1.1 percent over 24 hours with daily volume near $21 billion, while total liquidations across the network reached $203 million in the past day, with long positions accounting for $106 million, per Coinglass. Trading specialist Aksel Kibar flagged a possible inverse head-and-shoulders formation with a neckline around $62,300, targeting $76,000 if validated, while market commentator Ted Pillows said a four-hour close above $65,000 could push Bitcoin toward $68,000.

Bitcoin trades roughly 48 percent below its all-time high of $126,300 set in October 2025. VanEck's historical analysis shows the three prior bear cycles averaged 12.7 months from peak to trough; the current drawdown is about 11 months in, pointing to a possible bottom between September and November.

ETF Flows Signal Renewed Institutional Demand

The $300 million single-day inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETFs marks a rebound in institutional appetite after weeks of muted activity. The 50-month exponential moving average at $65,827 is serving as immediate resistance, with Bitcoin trading just below that level.

Long-term holders have distributed roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days, pushing their share of circulating supply below 60 percent for the first time in months, with 11.84 million BTC now classified as long-term holdings, according to Glassnode data.

What's Next for Bitcoin

The $65,000 level is the immediate pivot. A sustained break above it could open a path toward $68,000, while a rejection risks a pullback toward $63,000 support. On the macro side, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that a Federal Reserve balance-sheet expansion through the FIMA repo facility would boost dollar liquidity, historically bullish for Bitcoin.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.