Bitcoin reclaims $64,000 as Wall Street calls it accumulation phase

Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $64,332 on Monday, reclaiming $64,000 as a softer dollar and cooling rate-hike bets outweighed unconfirmed U.S.-Iran ceasefire headlines. The token had dipped to $62,530 on August 14 before a four-day rebound carried it through the threshold, according to CoinMarketCap data as of 8:20 a.m. Seoul time Tuesday. Twenty-four-hour volume reached $20.8 billion with market cap at $1.29 trillion.

VanEck researchers Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel said eight of twelve signals in the firm's Bitcoin Capitulation Check are flashing, placing the market "near or currently in an accumulation phase." The asset manager noted the three previous bear phases averaged 12.7 months from peak to maximum drawdown, and Bitcoin is roughly 11 months from the early October 2025 top, suggesting a potential transition between September and November.

Large holders added roughly 43,000 BTC worth about $2.75 billion over the past 60 days, according to CryptoQuant data cited by Bloomberg, after months of net selling. Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC accumulated 46,420 BTC in that window, the strongest whale buying since March 2026, while smaller retail holders sold nearly 10,000 BTC. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $137 million in net inflows Monday after $385 million in withdrawals the prior week, per SoSoValue data. The dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.19, its lowest since June, after July retail sales missed consensus forecasts.

The key test sits at $64,500 to $65,000, where BTC failed last week. A daily close above $66,803 would break the range that has contained Bitcoin since June, opening a path toward the 200-day EMA at $71,448. FOMC minutes due Wednesday could shape the next leg.

Whale accumulation diverges from retail selling

The on-chain picture shows a clear split. Large holders have flipped from distribution to accumulation, while retail wallets continue to shed coins into fear. CryptoQuant's 30-day apparent spot demand indicator has recovered from -206,000 BTC on July 23 to roughly -5,000 BTC, putting it at the point of turning positive for the first time since February 26.

Long-term holders sold 356,000 BTC over the past month, dropping their share of supply below 60 percent. VanEck said that pattern — long-term holders distributing into a falling market — is what the late stage of a drawdown looks like. When that cohort finishes selling and coins find new owners at lower prices, the float above the market thins.

BlackRock's research team echoed the accumulation thesis, attributing Bitcoin's decline from the October 2025 high of $126,198 to a "positioning correction" driven by crypto-specific leverage and slowing institutional inflows. The firm maintained its recommendation of a 1 percent to 2 percent portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, funded from equities. Cameron Winklevoss called the current price "an unprecedented time to buy the dip," noting Bitcoin trades at roughly half its prior all-time high.

Leverage and liquidity complicate the recovery

The recovery carries structural risk. The Binance long/short ratio sits near 2.05 with roughly 67 percent of accounts positioned long, while 30-day implied volatility has compressed to about 36 percent, close to its 2026 low. CoinGlass data shows a dense liquidation cluster near $64,700 above the market and a larger downside pool around $62,200.

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified $63,800 to $64,000 as a potential lower-timeframe entry area with a $65,000 target. Crypto commentator Rain warned that long leverage is building while exchange liquidity thins, creating risk that a move toward the upper-$50,000 range could trigger forced selling. Miners have reportedly reduced computing capacity by about 20 percent over three quarters as some operators shifted resources toward artificial intelligence.

The SEC added a regulatory tailwind on August 18, proposing "Regulation Crypto Assets," a framework creating two registration exemptions and a conditional safe harbor for crypto asset offerings. A 60-day public comment period begins once the proposal is published in the Federal Register. For Bitcoin specifically, the direct impact is limited since BTC was never the central securities question, but a clearer rulebook lowers the regulatory discount applied to the whole asset class.

The transmission channel from the Middle East to Bitcoin runs through energy, not sentiment. Cheaper crude means lower inflation expectations, which means a more dovish Fed, which means better conditions for risk assets. If tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz actually resumes and Brent breaks meaningfully lower, the rally has a foundation. If shipping stays halted, Monday's move was a support bounce that borrowed a headline for momentum, and $64,500 to $65,000 will likely reject it again.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.