Bitcoin nears $80,000 as Vaneck keeps $100,000 target for 2027

Bitcoin traded near $79,000 on Aug. 21, up 8.7 percent in 24 hours, after clearing $75,000 for the first time in three months.

Vaneck's head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, told CNBC he still expects bitcoin to reach $100,000 next year and $500,000 by 2029 if the current cycle "plays out as usual." He first made the $100,000 call in April when bitcoin was trading around $68,510.

Sigel attributed the current surge to the Treasury Department's announcement that it would double its long-term bond buybacks, a move traders read as inflationary and bullish for hard assets. "It is reigniting these fears of fiscal dominance," Sigel said. "As the Treasury finances more of that debt on the short end, it hits the fiscal balance immediately. It makes keeping rates high increasingly expensive."

The rally has been accompanied by heavy short covering. Over $750 million in bitcoin short positions were wiped out, according to Coinglass data, while U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1.12 billion in net inflows over two days. Bitcoin dominance stood at 57.5 percent, per CryptoRank.

The $500,000 Case Rests on Government Buying

Vaneck's longer-dated $500,000 target depends on the Bitcoin Act of 2024, proposed legislation that would direct the U.S. Treasury to acquire up to 1 million BTC by 2029, roughly 4.8 percent of total supply. The firm argues sovereign purchases on that scale would create a self-reinforcing demand cycle, pulling other governments toward similar allocations.

Bernstein's own target puts a 2026 year-end price near $150,000 and a cycle peak around $200,000 in 2027, broadly consistent with the $180,000 to $500,000 range Vaneck is working from.

Near-Term Signals Still Flash Caution

The bullish multi-year targets sit against Vaneck's own near-term data. The firm's mid-August Chaincheck report found 8 of 12 capitulation signals flashing as of Aug. 18. Long-term holders sold 356,000 BTC in 30 days, pushing their share of total supply below 60 percent for the first time in months.

Vaneck's researchers pointed to a potential turning point between September and November, based on past corrections averaging 12.7 months from peak to trough. They also flagged that periods with this many capitulation signals firing at once have historically produced forward 90-day and 180-day returns below bitcoin's typical baseline.

The immediate question is whether the current stretch near $80,000 holds as support. If it does, the path toward $100,000 by 2027 becomes a matter of institutional flows continuing at current levels. If it fails, the capitulation signals suggest a deeper bottom could still be forming before the September-to-November window Vaneck has identified.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.