Key Takeaways:
A Bitcoin moving average derivative that last flashed at the end of the 2022 bear market has triggered again, as price action returns to a reversal zone that marked the previous cycle's floor.
Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $61,465 on Thursday after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report revived Federal Reserve rate cut hopes and triggered $450 million in short liquidations across crypto derivatives exchanges, CoinGlass data shows.
"The market is likely in the final stage of its bear cycle," Tiger Research said in a note, as the CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index improved from Extreme Fear to Fear.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics counted 57,000 new jobs for June, roughly half the 113,000 consensus, while April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. Labor force participation slid to 61.5% from 61.8%. The miss pushed traders to cut odds of further Fed rate hikes and rotate back into risk assets, a day after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks had eased. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $294 million in net outflows on Wednesday even as prices climbed, extending June's record $4.5 billion exit.
Whether the bounce extends toward $70,000 now hinges on whether ETF inflows return and whether on-chain signals of a textbook bottom prove reliable. A failure to hold $60,000 could expose the realized price near $53,000, which CryptoQuant calls the key on-chain valuation floor.
On-chain signals point to late-cycle washout
The 200-week simple moving average's ninth quantile, which marked reversals at the pit of the 2022 bear market and the March 2020 Covid-19 crash, has flashed again, according to analysis by the quant account Frank. Short-term holder spent output profit ratio has flipped green, meaning wallets holding BTC for up to six months are realizing profits on minor recoveries — a pattern the analyst called "characteristic of a bull market."
CryptoQuant offered a more cautious view, noting that STH-SOPR has not yet reached the deeper capitulation area around 0.93 seen in previous local bottom zones. "The market has cooled down, but it has not yet shown a strong short-term holder capitulation signal," contributor Trader Germini wrote.
Derivatives markets tell a similar story of exhaustion. CME futures open interest sits at a 32-month low, while six-month options skew — a measure of how much traders pay to protect against a drop — has spiked to its fourth-highest on record, with the only parallels in June and November 2022, both near major cycle bottoms, according to ARP Digital partner Yusuf Fakhro.
Whale deposits and macro risks cloud the outlook
CryptoQuant flagged fresh warning signs on exchanges, with Bitcoin inflows jumping above 50,000 per day and the average deposit size doubling from 1 BTC to 2 BTC — a pattern driven by whales rather than retail. Historically, similar deposit spikes preceded sharp moves, including June's slide when Bitcoin fell to $58,000.
Renewed geopolitical risk adds another variable. Brent crude rose 0.6% to about $72.45 a barrel after a laden liquefied natural gas carrier was struck near the Strait of Hormuz, testing the late-June peace deal. Energy shocks tied to the Iran conflict drove crypto selling earlier this year before the truce eased them.
Bitcoin now trades 51% below its October 2025 record of $126,080 and down 44% over the past year. The bounce from late-June lows near $58,000 has been sharp but narrow — sustained by short covering and macro relief rather than fresh institutional demand. Whether it becomes a base or a bear market rally will depend on whether the on-chain signals that worked in 2022 prove reliable again.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
