Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's long-term MACD histogram crossed above zero for the first time since October, a shift in momentum that could push prices toward $70,000 if key resistance levels break.
Bitcoin rose 3.5% to $63,832 on Thursday after a long-term MACD crossover above zero, a shift in momentum that points to further upside. The smoother version of the moving average convergence divergence indicator — using 50-day, 100-day and 9-day settings — flipped bullish for the first time since the asset's crash from its record high of $126,000, according to TradingView data.
"Once liquidations begin to drive price action, the market can move faster than real demand would justify," Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, said. He is watching how bitcoin trades inside the $60,000 to $63,000 band now that the first recovery is in.
The indicator has proved reliable through the past year. Since October, negative crossovers have consistently marked the start of steeper declines, while positive crossovers preceded meaningful recovery rallies — including the December-January bounce and the February-May bounce, CoinDesk data shows. Bitcoin is up nearly 10% for the month and 4.2% over the past seven days, a period that included an oil shock, a bond selloff and two rounds of U.S. strikes on Iran.
The bullish crossover points to a notable bounce ahead, though not necessarily the start of a full-blown new uptrend. That bigger move would require clearing several resistance levels that have capped gains in recent months.
Three resistance levels to watch
The first level is the 50-day simple moving average near $65,434, a gauge of near-term momentum that traders watch closely. A clear move above it is often seen as a sign that upside strength is building.
The second is $67,292, the mid-June high where sellers stepped in aggressively after a brief recovery from early June lows near $60,000. Breaking above that would show buyers have overcome a previous area of strong selling pressure.
The third and most significant level is the 200-day moving average near $71,147, one of the most widely followed long-term trend indicators. It acted as major resistance in early May, stopping the bounce that had started from February lows near $60,000. Clearing it convincingly would be strong evidence that a full bullish trend is developing.
The $80,000 options wall
A final source of potential volatility comes from the $80,000 level. In Deribit's options market, the notional open interest at $80,000 exceeds $1.21 billion — the highest of any strike on the exchange, according to Deribit data. As prices approach this area, activity from traders holding these contracts could spill over into the spot and futures markets, adding to swings in price.
The rally comes as macro conditions shift in bitcoin's favor. The dollar index is heading for a second consecutive weekly decline, while Asian semiconductor stocks surged on renewed AI demand, with South Korea's Kospi jumping 4%. Bitcoin's gains this week were denominated in a currency that is getting cheaper, and if the greenback keeps sliding while the AI trade holds, the crypto tape will keep taking its cues from the macro cycle rather than from anything happening on a blockchain.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
