Bitcoin cleared $81,309 on Sept. 4 as falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar supported risk assets, though ETF flow volatility and September's historically weak seasonal record temper conviction in the rebound. Open interest in BTC futures climbed to roughly 709,000 BTC as traders added long exposure.
Bitcoin held above $81,000 on Friday, clearing the $81,309 resistance that capped the late-August rally as Treasury yields declined and the dollar softened.
The move followed dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who said he would favor holding rates unchanged at the Sept. 15-16 meeting if upcoming inflation data shows price pressures cooling. The implied probability of a September rate hike fell roughly 12 percentage points to 54.6%, the dollar index dropped 0.5% and gold climbed 2.3%, according to GuruFocus.
Bitcoin traded around $81,060 at 09:57 UTC, easing 0.22% since midnight after peaking at $81,309 overnight. The advance was broad — ether rose 4.52%, XRP 5.58% and solana 3.04% over 24 hours — with $318.6 million in liquidations across the market, per Coinalyze. Open interest in BTC futures climbed to roughly 709,000 BTC from 687,000 BTC a day earlier, with positive funding rates and a positive cumulative volume delta pointing to fresh long positioning.
The immediate test is whether Bitcoin can post a daily close above roughly $81,280, the level that would confirm a breakout from the current consolidation range. A sustained move above $82,000 could open a path toward the mid-$80,000s, while a break below $78,670 would raise the risk of a retreat toward $76,000-$77,000. September has historically been Bitcoin's weakest month, and ETF flow volatility adds another layer of uncertainty to the sustainability of this rebound.
Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) remains near 40%, having reversed from a pop to 50% in August, pointing to market calm. That aligns with the VIX hovering near 14%, its lowest since January. Options activity is dominated by call strikes between $85,000 and $95,000 expiring Sept. 25, suggesting traders are positioning for further upside rather than hedging downside.
However, the daily chart's oscillators tell a more cautious story. The relative strength index sits at 67, below the overbought threshold of 70, while momentum and MACD readings remain bearish. Bitcoin trades above its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-period exponential moving averages, but volume has not confirmed the rebound with the conviction seen during the late-August advance.
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold has climbed to its highest level since 2020, while its correlation with the S&P 500 has fallen close to zero, strengthening the argument that investors increasingly trade Bitcoin as a scarce monetary asset rather than a high-beta tech proxy. That shift makes the macro path — August jobs data, inflation readings and Fed expectations — the dominant driver for the next leg.
September has delivered negative average returns for Bitcoin in most years since 2013, and ETF flow volatility this month has added to the uncertainty. The question is whether falling yields can override that seasonal drag. If Bitcoin holds above $81,280 on a daily close, the path toward $85,000 opens. If it fails, the $78,670 support zone becomes the line in the sand.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
