Bitcoin holds $64,000 as Hormuz reopening bets lift risk assets

Bitcoin held $64,000 on Aug. 4 as Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes sent the S&P 500 to a record $70 trillion market cap.

Bitcoin held $64,000 on Aug. 4 as Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes sent the S&P 500 to a record $70 trillion market cap. BTC/USD climbed to $64,176 on Bitstamp, marking maximum daily gains of around 1 percent, according to TradingView data.

"This points to absorption rather than capitulation, as buyers accumulated into weakness," CryptoQuant reported on Aug. 3, noting 0.7 percent of the BTC supply — roughly 155,000 coins — now carries a cost basis between $62,000 and $65,000.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $32.1 million in net inflows on July 29, breaking a streak of outflows, with BlackRock's IBIT fund leading. Forced liquidations totaled about $280 million to $316 million over the day, affecting roughly 90,000 traders. Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at about $1.28 trillion, with the total crypto market cap near $2.29 trillion.

The next test comes in September, when CME FedWatch data shows a 56.7 percent probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. A breakout above $66,000 resistance, supported by continued ETF inflows, could open the path to recovery, while weak macro data risks a return to weekly lows near $62,400.

Fed's Hard Pause and the Hormuz Factor

The Federal Open Market Committee on July 29 left the key rate in the 3.50–3.75 percent range, with the vote ending 9 to 3 — three regional Fed presidents supported a 25 basis point hike, the most dissent from a softer line since 2016. Inflation around 4.1 percent and continued economic growth have reduced the likelihood of rapid monetary easing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Aug. 4 that "there's a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position" in the US-Iran conflict. The waterway handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. WTI and Brent crude traded 4.8 percent and 4.6 percent lower, respectively, hitting their lowest levels since July 13.

The S&P 500 index hit a record high of 7,713, with its market cap reaching $70 trillion for the first time. US public debt exceeded 100 percent of GDP for the first time since World War II, and Treasury yields rose as stock indexes moved in different directions.

ETF Rotation and Altcoin Divergence

Institutional flows show a selective approach. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $32.1 million in net capital on July 29, while Ethereum ETFs saw an outflow of about $18.65 million. Solana funds received about $19 million in inflows, and XRP products showed a small positive inflow of about $0.58 million.

Ethereum trades around $1,900, with its market share declining as capital flows into Bitcoin. More than 2.5 million ETH — about 2 percent of circulating supply — are waiting to enter staking, with a validator queue of about 44 days. The Grayscale fund's staking reward payouts, expected in early August, could attract new institutional capital.

Bitcoin's nearest support zone sits at $63,000–63,500, with buyers holding that level all week. Main resistance is around $66,000, near July's local highs. The 21-day simple moving average at $64,388 caps upside on hourly time frames, while the 50-day SMA functions as support.

What's Next

The final trading session of the month will be influenced by US inflation and consumer spending data, which will help assess the Fed's future rate trajectory. The base scenario for Bitcoin is movement in the $63,000–66,000 range. A breakout of the upper boundary, supported by new ETF inflows, could open the way for recovery. Tough macro data, on the other hand, could return quotes to weekly lows.

For medium-term investors, key benchmarks remain unchanged: Bitcoin's resilience above $63,000, Ethereum holding above $1,860, and continuation of institutional inflows. If these conditions persist, the market could see the first signs of a base forming for recovery in the second half of 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.