Bitcoin falls 20% in 90 days while S&P 500 gains 5%

Bitcoin's 90-day slide of 20% marks its steepest underperformance against US equities in years, even as on-chain data shows large holders quietly accumulating.

Bitcoin fell 20% over 90 days while the S&P 500 gained 5%, the steepest divergence in years, Glassnode data shows.

"Until Bitcoin begins to regain strength, the current market will remain dominated by stocks," Glassnode analysts wrote in their Aug. 11 report. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a separate analysis that whale cohorts across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are adding supply as prices sit near or below average purchase costs. "This positioning lowers downside pressure and is consistent with the final phase of the cycle's decline," he wrote.

Bitcoin traded at $64,000 at 14:30 UTC on Aug. 11, down slightly over the past 24 hours after touching an earlier high above $65,000. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.71%, while gold traded at $4,445 an ounce. CryptoQuant data shows spot order sizes for XRP remain in "big whale" territory even as the token holds the $1.00–$1.20 band, with a market capitalization near $66 billion. The 90-day taker cumulative volume delta for XRP has drifted to neutral, indicating aggressive buying and selling are roughly balanced.

The divergence between crypto and equities carries implications for capital allocation. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim resistance levels, further rotation into stocks could extend downside pressure across altcoins. Wednesday's CPI inflation report will shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy and, by extension, risk asset appetite, with the July jobs report having eased concerns about an imminent rate hike.

Whale Accumulation Points to Late-Cycle Basing

CryptoQuant's analysis suggests the current positioning pattern is consistent with the final phase of a bear market cycle. Bitcoin's bear market has been unusually shallow, and analysts have debated whether the bottom is in using arguments similar to what CryptoQuant applies to XRP. The firm said big, low-key buy orders, paired with roughly equal levels of buying and selling pressure, point to a calm accumulation phase — investors are holding steady rather than fleeing, but they haven't started pushing prices higher in earnest either.

XRP Charts Show a Bottoming Range

XRP was changing hands at $1.05 on Binance at press time, down 1.4% on the day. The daily chart backs up the on-chain picture: this is a market basing, not breaking down. The 50-day exponential moving average sits below the 200-day, forming a death cross — a lagging but bearish indicator. The relative strength index is 39.5, below the 50 line that splits bullish from bearish momentum and closing in on oversold (30) without tipping there. The average directional index is 10.4, meaning there's no strong trend powering the move right now, just chop. XRP has fallen from around $2.20 in early 2026 into a long, flat range near $1.

The chart and the on-chain data agree — whales are absorbing, not capitulating, and the structure looks like a bottoming range rather than a fresh leg down.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.