Bitcoin Braces for CPI as Fed Hike Odds Hold at 36%

Bitcoin held near $65,000 on Aug. 10, up 0.23%, ahead of the July CPI report due Aug. 12 that could decide the Fed's September call. The largest cryptocurrency traded at $65,064 as of 03:07 UTC, within a $64,700-$65,300 range held since the weekend, CoinGecko data shows.

Polymarket's September rate-hike contract has held at 36% for two straight days, down from 56.5% on Aug. 3 after July payrolls fell by 23,000, the first contraction in the series. "The largest BTC balance cohort is increasing exposure while smaller holders are reducing it," Amr Taha, an analyst at CryptoQuant, said.

Wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC accumulated 46,420 coins on Aug. 9, the most in a single day since March 15, CryptoQuant data shows, while holders of 0.1 to 1 BTC sold 9,700 coins. Bitcoin ETFs drew $844 million in the week through Aug. 7 and Ethereum ETFs added $244 million, their strongest weekly inflow since April. Total crypto open interest rose 1.05% to $114 billion, with Bitcoin's funding rate at 0.0077%.

Economists expect headline CPI to ease to 3.4% year-over-year from June's 3.5%, with core forecasts split between 2.4% and 2.5%. A hotter print that confirms TD Securities' rebound call could push hike odds toward the mid-40s and pressure Bitcoin toward support at $64,500; a cooler reading could open a run at resistance near $67,000.

Whale Accumulation Diverges From Retail Selling

The accumulation split is the clearest on-chain signal heading into the print. Large holders added 46,420 BTC on Aug. 9 while smaller wallets shed 9,700 coins, a divergence CryptoQuant's Taha flagged as a sign of conviction among the largest cohort. Bitcoin's active-address count has fallen to levels last seen in 2018, a pattern some analysts read as a possible market bottom.

The flow data sits against a backdrop of easing geopolitical tension. Reports that the US and Iran are making progress toward resolving their conflict have supported risk assets, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening expected to relieve oil-driven inflation pressure.

What a Hot or Cold CPI Print Means for Bitcoin

The stakes are concentrated in the core reading. TD Securities forecast core CPI to rise 0.20% month-over-month, framing the print as a rebound off June's unusually soft flat reading rather than continued disinflation. A core print above 2.5% would validate that call and likely lift September hike odds back toward the mid-40s, pressuring Bitcoin and Ethereum, which traded at $1,918, up 0.06%.

A cooler print would reinforce the 36% odds and support a move higher. Bitcoin faces resistance near $67,000, where traders who bought between May and August hold a realized price, with a close above that level opening a path toward $72,000, according to CryptoQuant. Solana, the day's outperformer, climbed to $77, its highest since July 27, while XRP traded at $1.03, down 0.28%.

The Senate begins a five-week recess Aug. 10, freezing the CLARITY Act's path until a cloture vote set for Sept. 15, leaving macro data as the only near-term driver for crypto prices.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.